Welcome to Volition Capital’s July 2025 Market Intelligence Report. This month’s report offers African investors a concise, data-driven snapshot of stock performance, currency movements, commodity prices, and sector-specific developments—all aimed at helping you make informed investment decisions.
Global Equity & Commodity Market Trends
As July draws to a close, global markets continue to exhibit a blend of resilience and sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite concluded the week of July 25 at fresh all-time closing highs. The S&P 500 closed at a record every day of that week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has achieved a new high in nine of the past ten sessions. Both indexes saw gains of over 1% for the week. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was recorded at 681.82 on July 28, 2025, demonstrating continued strength.
Brent Crude prices have seen a slight uptick today, rising 20 cents, or 0.29%, to $68.64 per barrel as of July 28, 2025, following a significant dip from previous highs. This indicates continued sensitivity to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical influences. Gold prices have experienced a drop, trading near $3,335 per ounce on July 28, 2025, declining for the third consecutive day due to a stronger US dollar and improving global trade sentiment.
African Equity & Currency Performance
African financial markets have delivered mixed results in July. Nigeria’s NGX All-Share Index has maintained a strong upward trajectory, reaching 126.7K in July 2025, surging by 8.6% month-on-month, marking its highest point in the last 13 months. The Kenyan NSE 20 Index has shown modest gains, trading around 2,536.04 as of July 25, reflecting a 0.56% increase for the day. South Africa’s JSE All Share Index is showing modest gains on July 28, with its value around 4961.89 as of 10:05 AM SAST.
African Currency Movements
- Nigerian Naira (NGN/USD): The official rate is approximately ₦1,539.76 per US dollar (as of July 28, 2025, based on aggregated data), while the parallel market rate remains higher, typically around ₦1,570.
- Kenyan Shilling (KES/USD): The Kenyan shilling has remained relatively stable, trading at approximately 128.994 KES per US dollar on July 28, 2025.
Commodities
Cocoa prices are showing a slight rebound but remain significantly down from record highs. As of July 25, 2025, September futures were trading at $8337.00 per tonne, while December futures were at $7571.00. Improved weather conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to influence harvest outlooks.
Sector-Specific Investment Trends
- Technology & AI: African startups raised over $1.4 billion in H1 2025, a 78% increase compared to H1 2024, signaling a strong rebound. Fintech continues to dominate, accounting for nearly half of all funding, with health tech and proptech also emerging as significant players.
- Real Estate: Lagos residential property prices are expected to rise another 5-15% in 2025, building on a 39.5% increase in 2024, driven by urbanization and infrastructure development. South African commercial property continues to see renewed investor interest.
- Energy: Africa’s energy investment is strong, with a projected $43 billion CapEx in 2025, largely in liquid hydrocarbons, though clean energy investment remains underfunded (only 2% of global).
- Consumer Trends: African consumer spending is projected to exceed $2 trillion by year-end 2025.
Forward Outlook
Market volatility is expected due to the US election cycle and global monetary policy shifts. Brent oil prices are now hovering around $68.64/bbl, with potential for continued fluctuations based on geopolitical tensions and demand. African currencies will likely remain pressured by external debt, but some, like the Tunisian Dinar, Ghanaian Cedi, and Moroccan Dirham, are showing steady appreciation due to stronger economic fundamentals and strategic policy management.
Nigeria’s commitment to fiscal and monetary tightening for Naira stability continues, with the Central Bank of Nigeria maintaining its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50% at its July 21-22 meeting. Kenya’s investor sentiment depends on credible policy reforms to strengthen fiscal sustainability, despite recent improvements in some macroeconomic indicators. South Africa’s mining sector continues to show signs of recovery, driven by commodity prices and improving logistics.
Largest Movers
- Prime Medicine (PRME): ~+20–50% (Biotech; continued trial momentum) Yahoo Finance – PRME
- Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX): ~+20–40% (Biotech; institutional buying) Yahoo Finance – CDTX
- UroGen Pharma (URGN): ~+15–30% (Biotech; sector strength) Yahoo Finance – URGN
- Rocket Lab USA (RKLB): ~+10–20% (Tech; satellite launch demand) Yahoo Finance – RKLB
- Leveraged AI/Semiconductor ETF (e.g., GraniteShares 2x Long COIN ETF – CONL): ~+20–50% (Tech; AI/crypto rally) Yahoo Finance – CONL
Closing Thoughts
Global and African markets continue to exhibit dynamic trends as July concludes. While resilience is evident in key equity markets and certain sectors, sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts, inflation signals, and geopolitical developments remains high. For African investors, the robust rebound in tech funding, the continued growth in consumer spending, and the strategic focus on energy investments present notable opportunities.
Disclaimer:
This report is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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